THE RUNDOWN

The Department of Labor just proposed a rule that could make it significantly easier to hire and work as a freelancer. The old six-factor classification test is being replaced with a simpler two-factor framework, and the comment period closes April 28.

That’s the headline. But the backdrop matters too: consumer confidence just hit the lowest point ever recorded, Epic Games cut 20% of its workforce, and PPI data drops tomorrow. The mood is rough. The opportunity is real. Both things at the same time.

Let’s get into it.

Quick Signals

Consumer sentiment hit a record low of 47.6.The University of Michigan’s preliminary April readingdropped 11%, the worst in the survey’s 70+ year history. Gas prices up 40% in six weeks from the Iran conflict, inflation expectationsspiked to 4.8%. One caveat: 98% of responses came before the temporary cease-fire.

Epic Games is cutting 1,000 jobs, about 20% of its workforce.CEO Tim Sweeney saidFortnite engagement dropped enoughthat the company is “spending significantly more than we’re making.” The company is alsotargeting $500M in additional cost savingsand shutting down multiple game modes. Not AI-driven, just a revenue problem.

Manufacturing has lost 89,000 jobs since Liberation Day tariffs.One year after the tariff rollout promised amanufacturing boom, the sector has contracted in all but one of the last 10 months. Theaverage household is paying $1,700 moreannually.

AI handles 65% of text-based work tasks now, up from 50% in 2024.At the current pace, researchers project AI could manage80% to 95% by 2029. The flip side: the World Economic Forum estimates anet gain of 78 million jobsby 2030, with 170 million created and 92 million displaced.

PPI for March drops tomorrow.February’s producer prices came in at0.7% month-over-month, the hottest reading in seven months, driven by a 48.9% jump in fresh vegetable prices. If tomorrow’s number runs hot again, it adds pressure to the Fed heading into the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.

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The Big Story

A new DOL rule could reshape freelancing for 72 million Americans.

The Department of Laborproposed a new independent contractor ruleon February 27 that would replace the Biden administration’s six-factor classification test with a simpler two-factor framework. The public comment periodcloses April 28.

The old test required companies to weigh six different factors before deciding whether someone was an employee or a contractor. The new rule narrows it to two core questions: does the worker have real entrepreneurial stake in the work, and does the hiring entity control how the work gets done? If both factors point toward contractor status,the classification is substantially likely to hold.

This matters because legal uncertainty has been freezing the market. For years, companies nervous about misclassification lawsuits have beenconverting contractor roles to employee positionsor simply not hiring independent workers at all. The DOL estimates the new rule would save small businesses $2.31 billion over the next decade by reducing compliance costs and legal risk.

The timing lines up with a broader shift. There are now72 million Americans freelancing, a record 5.6 million earning over $100K annually, and employers areincreasingly turning to contractorsto fill gaps as layoffs push more workers toward independent work. AI-skilled freelancers are commanding a56% wage premiumover traditional roles.

There’s a catch: this rule only applies to the Fair Labor Standards Act at the federal level. States like California, New York, and Massachusetts havetheir own stricter teststhat still apply. If your state uses the ABC test, the federal rule won’t override it.

Why it matters:If you freelance or are thinking about it, this rule could meaningfully expand your options. A simpler classification test means less risk for companies that want to hire you, which means more opportunities showing up. The comment period closes April 28, and the final rule could be in place by late 2026.

Making Moves

65% of employers are now hiring for skills, not degrees.

A shift that’s been building for years just crossed a tipping point. According to the latest data from NACE and SHRM,65% of employershave adopted skills-based hiring practices for entry-level roles, prioritizing what candidates can do over where they went to school.

The move is being accelerated by two forces. First, AI is making it easier for hiring teams toscreen for specific competenciesrather than relying on degree proxies. Second, the tight labor market in healthcare, engineering, and skilled trades is forcing companies to widen their talent pools or leave roles unfilled.

The sectors leading the shift are the ones with the most acute shortages. Nurse practitioners, data-driven care coordinators, andhealth services managersare among the fastest-growing roles, and many of the employers hiring for them are accepting certifications, bootcamps, and demonstrated project work alongside traditional degrees.

For job seekers, this changes the math on career investment. A targeted certification in data analytics, cybersecurity, or AI tools can now open doors that previously required a four-year degree. It doesn’t work everywhere (finance and law still gate on credentials), but in tech, healthcare, and operations, the shift is real and measurable.

Why it matters:If you’ve been holding off on applying because you don’t have the “right” degree, the data says that barrier is falling. Focus on building a portfolio of demonstrable skills, not collecting credentials. Two out of three employers are already looking past the diploma line.

Try This Out

Submit a public comment on the DOL independent contractor rule before April 28.

The DOL’s proposed rule on freelancer classification is open for public comment right now. Whether you’re a full-time freelancer, a side hustler, or someone considering independent work, your input matters here. Federal agencies are required to read and respond to every substantive comment.

Go toregulations.govand search for the DOL’s proposed independent contractor rule (RIN 1235-AA51). Write 2-3 paragraphs about how the current classification rules have affected your ability to find contract work, or how clearer rules would change your opportunities. Be specific: name your industry, describe a real situation, and state what outcome you’d prefer. Specific comments carry more weight than generic ones. Takes 10 minutes.

Predict This

PPI for March drops tomorrow morning. What’s your call?

February’s producer price index came in at 0.7% month-over-month, the hottest in seven months. With gas prices up 40% since February and food costs still elevated, March could run even hotter.

• Higher than February (above 0.7% MoM)

• About the same (0.5% - 0.7%)

• Cooler (below 0.5%)

Last issue’s CPI prediction: March CPI came in at 3.3% YoY, the highest since May 2024, driven by a 15% monthly energy spike.

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